England and Wales have had the biggest yearly population growth in over 75 years in the last year. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the population will increase significantly by mid-2023, reaching around 60.9 million. This spike of over 610,000 persons is the most dramatic increase since 1948.

Role of Net Migration

Despite cutbacks in immigration, net migration has been the key driver of this population growth. According to ONS estimates, between mid-2022 and mid-2023, immigration surpassed emigration by 622,000 people. This influx has been critical, as the birth rate has dropped to its lowest level in 21 years, leading to the smallest natural change (births minus deaths) since 1978.

Experts emphasize the potential economic benefits of immigration in mitigating the issues brought on by an ageing population. Immigration can help to relieve fiscal pressures and boost economic growth by increasing the proportion of working-age people.

The Conservative government came under intense public and political pressure as a result of the huge increase in net migration during its tenure. Labour's manifesto, on the other hand, did not specify a net migration target but did promise to address domestic skill shortages and lessen dependency on foreign labour.

Tony Travers of the London School of Economics highlighted the new government's dilemma: combining the high degree of foreign immigration required to meet labour market demands with political sensitivities. He stressed the critical role immigration plays in filling labour shortages, which are particularly noticeable in sectors such as health and care.

While some economists support leveraging healthier elder generations (a "longevity dividend"), others warn of potential pressures on public resources and economic productivity.

The demographic movements show considerable changes in age distribution. Notably, the population aged 75 to 79 witnessed a significant growth of almost 110,000 people. Meanwhile, the working-age population, which is critical for economic production, has stagnated.

Regions across England and Wales, excluding London and the West Midlands, recorded more deaths than births, highlighting the demographic issues compounded by dropping birth rates.

Looking ahead, the direction of population growth may be altered due to new visa requirements aimed at curbing inward migration. Despite these developments, the impact of immigration on population dynamics in England and Wales remains an important topic, influencing both economic and social policies.

FAQS

How has the political landscape in the United Kingdom influenced immigration policies?

The political environment has seen a lot of immigration debate. The Conservative government has attracted criticism for increasing net migration, while the Labour Party has committed to addressing domestic skill shortages and reducing reliance on foreign labour without setting precise net migration targets.

What are the long-term implications of immigration on the UK labour market?

In the long term, immigration can assist address labour shortages, particularly in key industries such as health and care. It can also help boost economic growth by expanding the working-age population and raising productivity through variety and innovation.